M&A Market Outlook 2026

So far, dealmakers are entering 2026 with optimism. Although M&A activity has somewhat recovered from last year, it has been later and more uneven than expected. 

It goes without saying that the economic backdrop has improved with easing inflation, modest rate cuts, stronger valuations, and more active M&A deal pipelines. However, geopolitical issues and policy uncertainty continue to weigh on buyer and seller confidence. 

Because of this, we thought it’d be a good idea to do a full M&A market outlook for 2026. We’ll take a look at the 2025 M&A trends, compare them to 2026, and give a proper outlook for the year to come. 

What 2025 Told Us

In 2025, it seemed like M&A activity rebounded in value but not in volume. Total deal value reached over $3 trillion, making it a YOY increase of around 30%. 

However, the number of deals remained relatively the same. Around 33,000 transactions occurred. This was almost the same number of transactions as in 2024. 

The recovery during this period was mainly driven by large-scale transactions. Megadeals, particularly those over $5 billion, and transactions above $1 billion, accounted for most of the total deal value. 

Generally, 2025 was defined by a “volume up, volume steady” dynamic. Capital and confidence returned to the market, but the number of dealers was limited. 

Current M&A Trends Heading Into 2026

The 2025 market isn’t one to forget. However, as we roll into 2026, we’re already seeing a lot of M&A trends occurring. 

Concentration at the Top

The “K-shaped” market is a real thing. Well-capitalized buyers are paying for quality (durable cashflow, strategic fit, clear synergies, while less-prepared companies see heavier diligence and more contingent pricing. 

Private Equity is Returning

During 2025, private equity started to make a huge comeback. In this year alone, global private equity deals rose by 59% from the previous year. Firms estimate that the total value of these deals was around $2 trillion.

Carve-Outs and Take-Privates Return

Another M&A trend in the 2026 pipeline is that large divestitures and take-private deals will make a strong comeback. 

That’s because the value of divestitures and spin-offs above $1 billion rose by 50% YOY, showing that companies are actively reshaping their business. 

At the same time, sponsor-led take-privates in North America increased by more than 60%, signalling that financing for larger private equity deals has made a return. 

AI and Capability Buys

Back in 2025, technology played a huge role in most megadeals. AI was the main culprit for this. It seems like large organizations are buying their way into this technology instead of building out the foundations themselves.

M&A Market Outlook for 2026

Looking ahead, we believe that 2026 is shaping up to be a year of disciplined expansion rather than explosive growth. 

Deal value is expected to remain supported by large transactions and private equity activity. However, a broader acceleration in deal volume could happen if macroeconomic stability improves, as well as executive confidence. 

The pace of this activity will depend on several factors. For example, interest rate movements, credit market conditions, geopolitical developments, regulatory scrutiny, and overall corporate earnings performance. 

If financing markets continue to normalize and economic conditions remain steady, we may even see low mid-market dealmaking strength in the second half of the year. However, that’s something we’ll have to wait and see. 

Overall, the 2026 M&A market outlook suggests continuing momentum at the top end of the market, especially in technology acquisitions around AI. Compared to 2025, it seems we’re heading into 2026 with more optimism, which could lead to a healthier market.